This is the hardest blog post I have ever done. The retirement of all time great and the best player in Major League Baseball for the past twenty seasons, Derek Jeter has hit me hard. The best player and one of the very first players drafted by Mr.S. (rip) and the YANKEES is gone and the hole he leaves offensively and defensively as the best shortstop in baseball is enormous. However, we must move on.
The YANKEES for 2015 will be fine and are reloading. With a very deep and talented starting rotation, albeit a starting rotation with much to prove, do not be surprised if this team performs far above expectations of the pundits and so called talking head experts. Didi Gregorius has been tabbed to replace Jeter at shortstop, which in reality can never be done. Didi needs to be himself, do what he does best and must not let the comparisons to Jeter get to him. Chase Headley has been given the third base position and that may be one of the best moves the YANKEES have made in the off season. The basic starting team will be McCann c. Teixeira 1b. Drew 2b. Headley 3b. Gregorius ss. Gardner lf. Elsbury cf. and Beltran rf. The YANKEES have a boatload of very promising minor leaguers, some of which who will undoubtedly be heard from over the 2015 season.
During the off season the YANKEES lost closer David Robertson, but have gotten better and deeper in the bullpen with the maturation of Betances and the signing of Miller. The closer spot has not been decided and possibly no one will be named. From start to finish the YANKEE pitching staff will be exemplary and carry the team a long way. The lineup on the other hand will have to come together and several players will have to step up their game over last seasons effort. The loss of Jeter, the leader, the captain, will leave a gaping hole that will have to filled by everyone in the lineup stepping up their performance.
Personally, I had an almost non-stop off season with interviews and evaluations. By my choice I am now on a year to year proprietary deal with the Steinbrenner sons. But they are not Mr.S. Hopefully, they will make the decisions that are best for the team, the fans, and winning.
I've noticed the stat frauds are almost non-existent here anymore. You guys and gals have done a great job beating them off, refuting and disproving their garbage man made formulas that are meaningless and useless. WINS and WINNING will always define the best players and teams. I will try to post more often this season and glad you are still here and growing the best baseball blog in the world, the WIN METHOD.
To conclude............LETS GO YANKEES.
2,485 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 2201 – 2400 of 2485 Newer› Newest»WIN METHOD has "green light" power over Yankees' signings? Please. This would not escape the New York media's eye.
Steve, could you please support your position? How did Rodriguez hurt the Yankees this year? Please define without resorting to the labels that mean little. Who would you rather have seen at DH producing needed runs?
Mark Feingold said...
WIN METHOD has "green light" power over Yankees' signings? Please. This would not escape the New York media's eye.
Green light power, no. While Mr.S was in charge a very very strong influence on which players to try to go after and more important who not to pursue. After the death of Mr.S. the sons became an issue. Their confidence is not that of Mr.S. We are working on their concerns. The farm is loaded with quality WIN METHOD types. Look to see more of the kids sooner than later.
There seem to be new posters here with questions. I strongly suggest that all posters read the WIN METHOD blog from start to finish to help them understand the WIN METHOD concept. It details how to compare players equally and not haphazardly as individual stats do. Use individual stats for home run power, batting average, the basics. If you really wish to understand baseball you will realize that so many events happen during each game that dramatically affect the outcome of each game. If you cannot understand the written word or do not want to take the time to understand nothing can be done about that. It is up to you.
Newbies, don't compare utility players to starting players, or starters to relievers. You will just make yourself look stupid. Baseball is a team game with the goal for the team to win, not for any individual to be lauded for losing and then blaming his teammates.
Unfortunately the Yankees can't sign every player WIN METHOD selects. Draft prospects can be picked by teams selecting before the Yankees. The Yankee scouts have an impact on decisions and there are times that they convince the final decision makers to take different players. There is no question that there has been a falloff since George Steinbrenner's passing.
Anonymous David Winters said...
Can we have some more posts from the guy who runs this blog, please? I can't find anything since the one to introduce the season. All I see are a bunch of running comments, second guesses, and Sterling imitations. I'm having a hard time seeing the value besides being a rooting section. It's an electronic foam finger.
October 7, 2015 at 3:49 PM
It is obvious you know nothing about winning baseball. Who are you to ask for more posts from WIN METHOD. You probably never read the blog from start to finish, thus have no idea what you are talking about.
The fraction I read from the other contributors was drivel, Eddie. I don't have the endurance to slog through the whole thing in the vain hope that there might be a pearl. It's just simplistic circular logic.
I feel the the biggest drag on the Yankees next year would be Alex Rodriquez. If the Yankees have the guts and fortitude to kick him off the team, the sky would be the limit. The team can't move forward with his not being able to play the filed nor run the bases. Please cut him loose. First time poster.
The fraction you read. That is a joke. The whole blog, the information in it, the wisdom, the insight, are all pearls. The logic is common sense and that must be your problem. You do not have any if you cannot understand that winning and only winning determines the best. The logic is direct and to the point and never varies, you are the one running yourself in circles. Are you one of those stat frauds?
Welcome Tripp. Great post and I agree completely.
You nailed it Eddie.
Welcome stat frauds. Post your views and embarrass yourself.
Ask yourself this very pertinent question. How can you be the best unless you win.
I wonder if the Yankees will be contemplating any moves this winter.
Much will depend on how the Yankees feel the youngsters are progressing and just when they will be ready. I would certainly not want to give out any long tern deals unless it was 20 something and no more than 3 years.
Just hope, out of desperation, they don't give away anyone who can really be good.
Think management, think. Then follow WIN METHODs advice.
Great blog. Packed it in at the NYY forum. Wins is were it's at.
All seems to be peaceful.
Love this blog because winning is why every professional game is played.
Louie Louie may very well become the ace of the Yankees next season.
I think in 2016 the Yankees will have one of those seasons people will talk about for a long time, and in a very positive way.
Hope so Deb.
Severino is going to be great. He will surprise many naysayers.
The Yankees have been trying to work around the cancer afraud for far to long now.
Don't give away the farm.
Last winter the front office did very well to build a solid contender and playoff team for this season. With the farm developing after a year and building on last year, I think we can look for a very promising 2016.
Hear hear Vlad. The Yankees can take it all in 16.
It could be a real fun spring training with many up and comers showing their stuff.
Loads of quality prospects, getting closer and closer to being ready to roll.
Lets go Yankees.
Derek Jeter is engaged to Hannah Davis. Wedding will be set for sometime in 2016.
Congrats Derek and Hannah.
Great news for Derek and Hannah. I bet they will have some great looking kids.
Jeter with his character and integrity deserves only the best. He has earned it with his deeds throughout his life.
All hail the great Derek Jeter. Best wishes to you and your be trothed Hannah Davis. Go forward and multiply.
Andrew Miller was voted American League reliever of the year yesterday. He and Betances are the best in baseball.
Jetes deserves everything he gets. Character counts.
Jeter is the man.
Congrats Derek and Hannah.
Not trades just for the sake of show. Build via the WIN METHOD.
I can't wait for the 2016 season to begin. So much potential from so many youngsters on the Yankee horizon.
Hey Zhaire, I want to see Louie Louie Severino for a full season and become the ace.
There is no question that winning determines who is best. If anything else determined who is best the games would never have to be played.
Steve, that's why the stat frauds play in the fantasy world. Wins by teams don't count for anything.
Congratulation Kansas City Royals. You guys are the best in baseball for 2015. Add in 2014 performance and you guys are the best baseball has to offer right now.
The AL is back on top.
Louie Louie is going to be star.
Great job KC. Congrats.
Catching prospect Gary Sanchez is tearing up the Arizona Fall League.
We had a few stat frauds last month. They left quickly after making fools of themselves.
Bloom and grow Yankees, bloom and grow. Improve on last seasons effort in 2016.
The Yankees would be a better team instantly if they cut afraud. You either play him and hurt the team, or you cut and make the team better. Either way you still have to pay him. What is the logic in hurting the team.
The next three months are boring for sports.
The following was posted on a baseball forum where I have been discussing the WIN METHOD philosophy with some posters. I thought this was a brilliant analogy putting wins and stats in perspective.
""""""""""Back when they had duels, you could measure a shooters proficiency by how quick he draws, how speedily he shoots, by how accurate his shot have been in the past, and all sorts of other measures, but no one can deny the fact that the winner is the one who comes back alive."""""""""""""
Yes, win and you are alive.
Steve, that was a great analogy. The poster really nailed wins and stats.
What a great quote. stat frauds to a tee. How foolish they are.
Went to the other baseball forum. Man oh man, I have never seen so many so stupid. The garbage they come up with is amazing.
Funny and accurate. WIN METHOD wins stat frauds lose.
Loved the duel scenario.
Wins are not the only thing, they are everything.
Stay calm front office. Stay calm.
The stat frauds on the baseball forum I am posting at are still trying to tell me that the losers are the best and winning is dependent on luck. Dumb as rocks. But there are a few that know that winning determines the best.
What a sweet look at baseball and who is best. Love it.
Update on baseball forum site I have been posting on......Never have I seen so many who know so little, whine cry and snivel so much.
I'm always amazed when someone tries to tell me the winner is not the best.
I got tired of fans on the forums always thinking they know better than management and questioning every decision.
The team for 2016 is pretty solid. Injuries have hurt each of the past few years. Looks like the makings of a splendid rotation with the addition of Louie Louie moving in. Tanaka, Pineda, and Eovaldi rounding out the top four is fine. Then what IF CC recovers and Nova is over his TJ surgery. The bullpen is the best in baseball. Just don't do anything stupid with dumb trades for multi year multi million dollar losers. The Yankees must get back to sticking with solid WiN METHOD chosen selections.
We are overdo for a relatively injury free season.
Please post soon WIN METHOD. Love ya,
NO stupid trades. Don't give away any of the top prospects. Dump afraud. That's a ++.
Baseball forum update. The stat fraud want to trade Miller for Strasbourg. They are a joke.
Bloom and grow. The seeds are starting to sprout.
No long multi year contracts unless their is a clause for no pay for no play.
Louie Louie to be the ace???????
Murphy traded to Twinkies for Hicks. Opens catcher spot for Sanchez. Another youngster moving in.
It gets better and better.
Yankees trade Pirela to Padres for a minor league pitching prospect.
Sanchez as 2nd catcher is another move up for a rookie.
2 moves by the FO so far and both make the 2016 team better. Keep moving forward.
Keep cool Cashman. Don't do anything stupid or go against WIN METHOD.
Winter meeting next month. Should be much talk and some deals made.
With all the pitchers returning after last seasons recuperating and building innings look for a big season form the Yankees rotation for 2016.
The World Series next season.
Stay the homegrown course.
Don't give away any of the promising WIN METHOD selections Cashman. Stick with the WIN METHOD and win.
Where have all the stat fraud gone, oh where have they gone.
Big 2016.
Stay the course. We have the future in out hands.
Go Steve go. Bury those twits.
I just can't imagine going into the 2016 with the black hole afraud in the lineup.
Cut afraud. He is a lying cheating fraud, in baseball and in life.
The WIN METHOD rules. I pity the fans who don't think winning teams and players are not the best.
Stay cool front office.
No trades just for the sake of making believe you are doing something,
I haven't posted on the baseball forum the last couple of days. My head is spinning from reading the incessant garbage of trade this trade that for this or that. Most of the posts there are redundant, stupid, or inane. What a pleasure this blog is.
Stay the course Cashman. We have the players in our system.
This is the present Yankee 40 man roster.
PITCHERS (22)
1. Dellin Betances
2. Johnny Barbato
3. Vicente Campos
4. Caleb Cotham
5. Rookie Davis
6. Nathan Eovaldi
7. Domingo German
8. Nick Goody
9. Jacob Lindgren
10. Andrew Miller
11. Bryan Mitchell
12. Ivan Nova
13. James Pazos
14. Brandon Pinder
15. Michael Pineda
16. Nick Rumbelow
17. CC Sabathia
18. Luis Severino
19. Chasen Shreve
20. Masashiro Tanaka
21. Adam Warren
22. Justin Wilson
POSITIONAL PLAYERS (18)
CATCHERS (3) -
23. Brian McCann
24. Austin Romine
25. Gary Sanchez
INFIELDERS (8)
26. Dustin Ackley
27. Greg Bird
28. Didi Gregorius
29. Chase Headley
30. Rob Refsynder
31. Alex Rodriguez
32. Brendan Ryan
33. Mark Teixeira
OUTFIELDERS (7)
34. Carlos Beltran
35. Jacoby Ellsbury
36. Ben Gamel
37. Brett Gardner
38. Slade Heathcott
39. Aaron Hicks
40. Mason Williams
We want WIN METHOD.
Is it spring training time yet? Just three months away.
This team is going to wake up some non believers next year. Mark my words.
A three game improvement over last season gives us 90 wins. Very easily possible.
Can some one explain this method to me? How can it be used to analyze individual players rather than teams?
Does it imply that there are no good players on non-playoff teams? That all players on the Royals are good? Can some one explain?
Where have all the stat frauds gone. They are on the baseball forums whining and crying to the moderators that the WIN METHOD posters are upsetting them. Love it.
Hang in there Steve, you are dealing with people who have little baseball acumen and live with the belief that fantasy baseball determines winners.
I get sick reading most baseball forums. The shear ignorance by so many there, not everyone, but many is discouraging and disheartening.
""""""""""""" Steve said...
Can some one explain this method to me? How can it be used to analyze individual players rather than teams?
Does it imply that there are no good players on non-playoff teams? That all players on the Royals are good? Can some one explain?""""""""""""
I take for granted you are not the Steve who has posted here for years. To answer your query, I strongly suggest you read the WIN METHOD from the beginning. If you are unable to understand after that I would gather that you are a dolt with very little comprehension ability. It is explained in detail. Everybody who posts here seems to have no problems understanding.
Hey Steve, I knew that other Steve was not you. Either a poser or someone innocent.
Hi,
I understand the theory. Stats don't matter, it's about helping the team win, there is an emphasis on the timing of hits (hits in big situations are obviously more valuable than a home run in blowout loss). My question is when the Yankees make a move, let's use the most recent Aaron Hicks trade, how do people on here evaluate whether they think it was a good move or not.
I for one didn't follow the Twins and don't know the every single detail of the timeliness of Hick's hits throughout 2014. I would also think that something like that can vary drastically from year to year.
So let's stick to that trade. What did people here think of it and why?
P.S. My name is also Steve, I didn't realize there was another.
I bet Steve the questioner will have difficulty comprehending the WIN METHOD if he indeed reads it from beginning to end.
Hello Steve F.......You appear to have gotten a grasp on producing when it counts as opposed to producing in meaningless situations. The selection process is done by WIN METHOD through an interview. WIN METHOD interviews possible players of interest Yankee management may be interested in obtaining. He also interviews FA's in general, college players entering the draft. Foreign players from all over the world. He is then able to give the Yankees a thumbs up or down on most players the team is interested in. On several occasions he has told the team to try to make sure they get a certain player if they can. Not every player is WIN METHOD that are on the Yankees, most are however. Particularly the kids coming through the minors.
Steve F, you may want to reread the WIN METHOD selection process articles.
Thanks bigbadwolf for the clarification.
What I'm really asking is what do the members on this blog use to evaluate players, if stats are meaningless as it is presented? I imagine many of you form your own opinions on players - how do you so without the use of statistics?
Additionally if you look at the following link - http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/player-game-winning-rbis/2015/ - this lists the leaders in game winning RBIs. This seems like a statistic that would combine aspects of regular statistics AND win method theory (namely, these RBIS directly led to wins for the team, and thus were important). I would think this statistic has relevance does it not?
Newbie here, I love the positive attitude of the WIN METHOD and most posters here.
Game winning rbis given to the player who put their team in front in the first inning and or possibly any early inning is meaningless and skews the statistics to a point of their being useless.
Hi candycane
" Wins, holds, and saves are the true measurement of a pitchers ability to help his team succeed. The more wins, holds, and saves the pitching staff earn, the more wins the team earns. "
I took that directly from the blog. Why is it true for a pitcher and not a hitter? I could liken getting a game winning in RBI in the 1st inning to a pitcher who wins a 10-9 game after giving up 9 runs. They both directly led to the team winning correct? Why can one be used as a measurement (per WINMETHOD) and the other is useless?
I'm also curious if you find any meaning in this
RS RA DIFF RECORD
2011 867 657 +210 97-65
2012 804 668 +136 95-67
2013 650 671 -21 85-77
2014 633 664 -31 84-78
2015 764 698 +66 87-75
It looks like the amount of runs scored vs. runs allowed (the run differential) has a direct correlation to the yankees record (the two years with negative run differential were also the years we had the worst differential.
Do you not agree with this correlation - it seems pretty telling.
Steven F..I have always felt that players who get their team to the playoffs are the best players. Sports are played for the team to win. No other stats matters. If a player wants to win in this day and age. Just play out your option and don't sign just for money. Sign to win.
Steven F..The past three seasons the Yankees had a difference or 2 and 3 wins from the top winning season. The run differential was significantly different. Didn't prove much. It is very fair to feel that the more runs you score the more chance you have to win. The point is you don't really need a huge difference in runs to be a winning team and reach the playoffs.
Steven F, pitching is for an entire game. The object is for the pitcher to win. If his team scores many runs he can allow more runs. The win is what matters not how many runs the pitchers allows or doesn't allow. An RBI early can be the result of what team mates did to provide a player with the opportunity to get the RBI. That is why the WIN METHOD acknowledges all players on the team for a win.....Let me ask you this, how would you rate that first inning RBI that holds up for the entire game compared to in the ninth inning your centerfielder makes a full out diving catch with the bases loaded and two out to save the game? What was more important?
Steven F try to use logic and common sense when thinking about the WIN METHOD. It helps put things in perspective. Defense can win a game, a big HR can win a game, a sac fly can win a game. A stolen base can be a game changing play. Or any combinations of each. Every game is different, but every game is won by what team mates produce in a myriad of ways to get the win. A great individual performance in a game that determines the win is fine. A great individual performance in a game where the win is a rout and not contested doesn't mean squat.
Thanks for the responses guys, I'm gonna respond in separate comments:
johnsondc
I absolutely agree that you can't just calculate how many wins a team gets based on the run differential. I'm using this more as a trend, 2011 and 2012 we had a MUCH better run differential and had many more Wins. Going even further back:
RS RA DIFF RECORD
2010 802 649 153 95-67
2009 915 753 162 103-59 (impressive!)
2008 789 727 62 89-73
So you see, it's not an exact science (2009 we had +9 better differential and 8 more wins), but it certainly seems like a very good indicator. The more runs you score and less you allow certainly has shown over the last 8 years to lead to more wins.
With that being said, it seems dismissive to just throw away stats. If I was a GM (which admittingly, I'm not), I'd be looking for players who create more runs and pitchers who allow fewer runs. This will allow my team to have a better run differential and ultimately, as history has shown, have more wins.
Eddie O Conner
Pitching isn't necessarily for an entire game. Also isn't it a bit simplistic to say that if a team scores many runs a pitcher can allow many runs. Allowing more runs = more pitchers = shorter outing = more bullpen use. A big part of being an ace is being able to take over the game and let those other guys rest.
The first inning RBI vs. the game saving catch - surely you could make the argument the catch was more important, certainly the bigger moment. Let's flip that around though, that fielder made that catch in inning one, but the hitter gets the go ahead hit/rbi in the 9th inning. Don't runs scored and runs prevented matter in every inning if they lead to an ultimate win. I just don't want to confuse more important vs. more dramatic.
My ultimate point, is no one should be using the game winning RBI stat as a ultimate statistic and all telling, but it certainly means something right? Even in that situation you pointed out, that RBI was hugely important as it was clearly a close game.
bigbadwolf
100% agree with what you say. Common sense to me that over the course of a 162 game schedule, if my players score the most runs and allow the least, we're going to win a lot games.
I've been seeing a lot of post that state stats don't mean anything. That seems very dismissive to me. They certainly don't mean everything as has been pointed out, but as I have shown that the Yankees seasons with the most wins are when they score much more than they allow. How then can we say stats don't matter at all?
I apologies for flooding the board, my girlfriend is yelling at me now so I'll take a break :-)
Steven F..always go to the extreme to prove a point. Your team wins 100 games by 1 run and loses 62 by 2 runs. -24 runs for the season but a guaranteed payoff spot and likely the division winner. Winning by 1 run is no less a win than by winning by 10 runs. The point being it is the wins and only the wins that count to succeed as a team of players. That is the end all of common sense and logic. Wins mean success or failure, how many runs are scored over the season unless they mean you made the playoffs are not important.
bigbadwolf
That example doesn't hold much weight in reality however. There has been ONE team all time that won the World Series with a negative run differential, the 1987 Twins, and even they only won 85 games that year, certainly a total that doesn't even guarantee a playoff berth in this day and age.
Wins are at the end of the day all that matter, but run creation and prevention are what DRIVE wins in reality. Certain statistics are simply a measure of players success in creating and preventing runs. No statistic tells the full story, for sure, but for that we should just ignore them?
Steven F.. You are trying to make to much of a simple fact. Wins and only wins determine who is best. A win can be achieved in countless ways, yes countless. Your vision of an ace is yours. My ace wins big games in big situations and wins a decent amount of more times than he loses or comes away with a no decision. It is not simplistic to say if a team scores many runs a pitcher can give up more runs, it is common sense. A win is what the goal is no matter how many runs is given up by the pitcher. The win is all that counts. Baseball is constantly changing. Pitchers used to throw well over 100 pitches in every game. Now to reach a 100 is a big deal. The WIN METHOD doesn't care if a starting pitcher goes five innings or nine innings, nor does it care how many runs he gives up or how many pitches he throw. It only cares about the win. The another garbage is a superfluous smoke screen used by the stat frauds to mask the real goal of the pitcher, to win. You talk of the game winning RBI. That also is garbage. The "game winning RBI" changes as the game progresses and each team scores runs. It is also meaningless Barbara Streisand.
Guys, Steven F is asking many questions that have all been explained countless times in this blog over the past several years. He keeps coming back to stats in one way or another. He is missing that no stat how ever used or conceived, or manipulated determines nothing about who wins and is the best. Wins, for any game, series, month, or season determines who is the best for that time frame. Since baseball is played over 162 games to reach the playoffs, only the amount of wins achieved by all players on each team contributing in every way imaginable determines who is best.
Steven F..You may want to check your facts. There may be more, but I know of a WS that the winning team scored a total of 26 runs and the losing team score 56 runs. I think that is unbelievable and overwhelmingly proves the meaningless of stats. The example I gave regarding the 100 wins by 1 run and 62 loses by 2 runs is very telling. It shows that stats can definately mislead, while wins can never mislead. I rather not be mislead or manipulated by stats. Run creation is needed to win, 1 run can give a team a win as can 15 runs. The creation of 15 runs means nothing unless the opposing team score 14. A win by any amount of runs is equal to any other win. Only the stat frauds want to make how much you score a big deal. The win is the big deal no matter what the score. I pretty much ignore statistics, I just want to win. And through the history of baseball the champion won with wins and the stats may be different in huge swings in every category you may wish to use.
I love the 2016 rotation. Louie Louie, Tanaka, Pineda, Eovaldi, and whoever. Very strong.
bigbadwolf
My stats were related to teams over a full season, not just postseason stats - gotta win to get there. I disagree that your example is telling - as it is not a real statistic and only a one time example. No stat should be taken as law, but some can be used as general indicators of future success.
I would never argue that run differential determines who WINS the postseason, anything can happen in a short game series and teams can win them in a myriad of ways. You can essentially, throw the stats out the window come the post season where the true best of the best is crowned.
However, it is a huge accomplishment to reach the postseason and I have shown that run differential has a direct correlation in season W-L record (that is, the better run differential has led to more wins throughout a season, as history has shown us).
In response to RLA
I've never ONCE said that other stats determine who is best. Wins are what matters, I've agreed countless times. What am i saying is that at least one stat, run differential, has a direct relationship to wins as I've shown that over the course of the last 8 years, we achieve more wins when we have a better run differential. It's pretty logical as well, over the course of the season we are scoring many more runs than we allow, and thus are winning more games.
I've yet to see anyone say why I'm wrong regarding this. It certainly can't be applied as law, but it seems like in general it's the case. Just look at the playoff teams run differential this compared to the non playoff teams - it's fairly telling. I don't appreciate being called a "stat fraud" as I don't think any of the stats I've posted are misleading or untrue.
Steven F..You said the stat I posted is not telling and not realistic. That was my point. No stat is ever telling. Stats can b e interpreted many ways by different people. Some use one set of stats, others a different set, and still other another set. All these people argue their points using their desired set of stats. You are doing the same using run differential. That is your belief and you are welcome to it. I like most of the countless followers here live by wins and we do not care what set of stats used achieves those stats. Because one day it could be one set and another day a whole different set. WINS and only WINS always tells the story. You want to play with run differential, explain how a team scoring 90 runs more than another team can have a far less win percentage than the lesser differential team? Stats and how they can be used are smoke and mirrors. That is why here the stat users are called stat frauds. Smoke and mirrors.
bigbagwolf
This of course can happen, the point I've stressed countless times is that there is NOT a direct calculation between run differential and wins. I am however saying, the vast majority of the time, the teams around the league that have the most WINS, have the best run differential. That's it, it's not a predictor of post season success, it does not say what team IS the best, but it is definitely a very useful indicator of which teams have had the most success. This has been proven year and year out.
I don't believe a stat can just be called smoke and mirrors just because it is not 100% precise. This is baseball, where a multitude of things can happen on the field, no stat tells the whole story - and I don't believe people that use stats make that claim.
Maybe it's my analytical nature that interest me in stats. Wins tell you simply what happened, but using the proper stats can tell you HOW it happened. I enjoy analyzing players based on their strengths and weaknesses, which the right stats can paint a good picture of. I suppose that isn't a big interest of the blog users here.
Steven F The difference between stats and wins is wins always tells who is best. Wins are fool proof, undeniable, and determine who is best and the champion. Wins are 100% precise. Stats are smoke and mirrors because they are looked at and several people can claim they say different things depending on how they look at or use them. Wins never can be altered. The box scores tell me what happened and box scores are just a method of describing what happened to a degree in shorthand. We know the ability of players by basic stats used since the beginning of baseball. We know who gets the most hits, who hits with power, who is a base stealer, a good strikeout pitcher, etc. We determine the best of those by who can help their team to the playoffs the most over their career.
Steven F, I understand what you are trying to say and your approach. Because something happens most of the time doesn't make it a solid investment. Wins and losses happens all the time and is a no lose investment. You win the most you go to the playoffs. You win during the playoffs you become the best of the best. That is pretty much where the WIN METHOD stands.
Deb F then the 5th spot, Nova? CC? Warren? Very solid.
Thanks for the responses bigbadwolf and Steve,
I understand what you are saying and agree, wins will tell you who was the best in the past. They tell me that KC was the best team last year and had the best assortment of players.
However I'm still not sure how you can apply the WINMETHOD to future projections, which is what the Yankees are currently focusing on this offseason. The best player on the KC royals was the player that helped his team win the most, which can be done a multitude of ways. My simple question, who was that player? Lorenzo Cain put up impressive offensive stats and based on what I saw from him was a solid outfielder. It's a combination of statistical analysis and win method I'm using to say that in 2015- Cain was the one of the best player in baseball and some one Id be happy to have on my team. If I simply used WINMETHOD and didn't look at any stats- how do I determine which royals players were most valuable.
Do you agree Cain is one of the best? If so why? If you compare him to say Omar Infante who would you rank ahead? Are they equal in your mind since they both contributed to a championship?
HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ECH AND EVERY WIN METHOD FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD.
Steve F We try to compare players by there position played. Not much use comparing a first baseman to a second baseman. Or a starting outfielder to a catcher. Or a starting pitcher to a reliever. Or any starting player to a utility player. If I were looking for an outfielder Cain would likely be my first choice. But there are many WIN METHOD qualified out fielders that a logical argument could be made for. I most assuredly be looking at the ones who can take a team to the playoffs. Infante can really step up when it counts and is a solid player, but I guarantee the stat guys would dismiss him without a second thought. If I need a second baseman I have no problem with him but he is getting to the age of possible deterioration.
Happy Thanksgiving. Eat drink and be safe.
Enjoy your turkey with your family and friends. Happy Thanksgiving.
bigbadwolf
That only partially answers my question. Let's use Alex Rios and Lorenzo Cain as examples, since both are outfielders. Both were starters that led their respective team to a championship. So after that, how do we evaluate them? We have to look at which of these players helped their team win more than the other correct? HOW do we determine that without the benefit of any statistics? Put yourself in Brian Cashman's shoes - what should he then look at next.
In the same line of thought - you state that Omar Infante is a solid player who can step it up when it counts. What are you basing this on? The six games that he played against the Yankees where he only led his team to 2 wins?
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Steven F Cain over Rios. Cain had 200 more at bats, stole more bases, more power, higher BA. Just the basics used for decades. I thought everyone used basic stats used for decades.
Keep in mind Cain had 200 more at bats meaning he played approximately a full 1/3 of a season more. Re Infante his post season experience. Has helped several teams to the post season.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Steven F....Don't forget the WIN METHOD was developed by WIN METHOD for the sole purpose to make the Yankees the best they could be. If you read his blog posts you would know he built and refined the WIN METHOD over decades. The interview is the key to determining Yankee compatibility, willingness to play for the Yankees, maybe for less money, character, integrity, etc. WIN METHOD would interview players Yankees may be considering. When George Steinbrenner was alive, he and WIN METHOD were very close. Hal has been a bit of a problem and WIN METHOD has posted the same.
Give it a break people, its Thanksgiving. Happy turkey everyone.
bigbadwolf
Yes I agree 100%, it's Cain by a landslide in my mind, and for many of the reasons you gave. The stance I had been getting throughout the blog is wins and "Nothing else matters, no stat of any kind, be it an actual reality based stat or a convoluted misleading man made stat used and relied upon only by the most foolish of baseball fans."
So it would seem that stats can matter
Furthermore on Infante, you mentioned he might be reaching of age of possible deterioration. I'm going to post stats for this one, bear with me.
AVG OBP SLG OPS
2013 .318 .345 .450 .795
2014 .252 .295 .337 .632
2015 .220 .234 .318 .552
Wouldn't these stats indicate he has deteriorated. It's far less likely he helped his team win as consistently with a .220 BA vs. a .318 BA from two years ago no?
Happy Thanksgiving.
It took him decades to develop a theory that players who help their teams win are good? Where did that theory start at that it possibly needed refinement?
Also do we have evidence of WINMETHOD's relationship? I didn't notice any pictures of him with George or of any actual interactions between the two - are we just taking him at his word?
Happy Thanksgiving. Lets go Yankees.
Steven F Infante helped enough to get his team into the playoffs, unless you think the Royals didn't play with him in the lineup and at second base.
WIN METHOD was befriended by Yankee players in the 50's. It is in the blog, and if you read it completely you would know this. He learned about winning and what it took as a team and a man, then he started to put it to use talking with players. He met George Steinbrenner and proved to him how well it worked and everything took off from there. That's about it in a nutshell. WIN METHOD is very well off financially and looks for no notoriety. He told me he enjoys the fans you pooh pooh the WIN METHOD as he laughs his way to the bank. I have met him and am working for him. I cannot interview like he does. He is magic.
Bigbadwolf - Hm I didn't see anything on his specific background going through the blog, but I can look closer. That's pretty awesome though that he was befriended by Yankee players as a teenager in the '50s, I can only imagine.
What do you do with him workwise?
Happy Thanksgiving.
Happy Thanksgiving all.
Happy Thanksgiving. Hi Tom.
To all a very Happy Thanksgiving.
Parade time with the kids. Happy Thanksgiving.
Toms in the oven, Happy Thanksgiving.
Happy Thanksgiving.
Everyone, have a grand Thanksgiving.
Another day without baseball. Well, it is Thanksgiving. Happy happy.
Happy Thanksgiving to WIN METHOD, all the crew, all the posters, and all WIN METHOD fans from around the world.
Time for Tom to do his duty. Dinner time. Happy Thanksgiving.
Yo guys and gals. Happy Thanksgiving.
Hope everyone had a great day.
Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving. Only four weeks to Christmas.
Happy Thanksgiving everybody.
Steven F I apologize. WIN METHOD background in detail is not in his blog posts. It was posted in a couple of old baseball forums many years ago. I will mention it to him. My main job is authorizing posts. Anything can be posted and name calling is tolerated. There is absolutely no curse words allowed and those posts never see the light of day. You can call other posters idiots and such. We are not thin skinned. You have hung around longer than most not fully WIN METHOD devotees. I think you see WIN METHODs point. Playing for the team to win has got to be a beautiful thing. Meeting players and discovering that and have the Yankees sign them and then have them reach the majors, then win the World Series has to be a good feeling.
bigbadwolf
Thanks for clearing that up haha, I looked again and didn't see anything and I thought I was going crazy for a little bit.
I see the WINMETHODs points - and a lot of good ones are certainly made, but as you could probably tell I cannot fully subscribe to the idea for a few reasons:
As stated, a win is a team stat, the ultimate team stat. However I have trouble only applying a team stat to all the individual players on such an equal basis and evaluating them based primarily on that, as win method seems to do. Troy Tulowitzski has been a great player per stat analysis for many years but a very poor WINMETHOD player (in that, Colorado has been bad for many years). If Toronto were to simply look at the WINMETHOD way, they would not have traded for him, but they looked at what statistics have told us, that he is a solid defensive shortstop with a great bat. He ended up helping lead his team to great stretch of baseball (in regards to winning) and an ALCS appearance. I think he is a very good player who was surrounded by a lot of bad players on those Colorado teams, and I'm not sure strictly using the WINMETHOD would help you determine that. I think he will again contribute to a very good winning Toronto team next year. This same argument can be made for Cueto, Zobrist, and a number of players who throughout history are traded from a losing team to more talented team and propels them to a deep playoff run or championship.
MLB, and the Yankees organization as whole, are relying more and more on statistical analysis. I know a lot of here argue these stats are "manmade", but baseball itself is a manmade sport that changes and evolves, and so to can we change the way we view players. Some stats may prove to be more useful than others, but to turn a blind eye towards all of them and saying they are all useless is a bit disingenuous in my mind. I believe that a combination of WINMETHOD theory and statistical analysis can provide the most insight as to a players true ability.
That's where my heads at, not sure if anyone here will agree, but I hope you can at least see where I'm coming from. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!
Think Yankee fans, what Louie Louie Severino is going to bring to the table next season, as he matures physically, goes through spring training pretty much knowing he is going to be in the starting rotation, and learns.
What impressed me with Louie Louie is how he did while the Yankees weren't playing very good baseball.
Steven F First off I would like to thank you for your quality posts and how well you express your views. Now, Tulowitzski, he has been a decent hitter over his career. He helped the Rockies to the playoffs twice and once to the WS. That is not the definition of a bad team. Not counting his 2006 break in season Tulo has played nine seasons, only three of which he played in over 140 games, which in my opinion is at least a full season. He was a good fielder, but no where near Jeter and a few others. His post season average is pathetic. If I remember correctly, he did not want to leave the Rockies for many years. He did not exercise free agency. Those were his decisions. If a player thinks he is very good and wants to win it easy to sign with a contender. He did not until last season. His two months with a contender was not spectacular by any means and I don't think it meant a bit that Toronto would not have gone to the playoffs without him. Also, I do not think he ever wanted to play for the Yankees, so he could never have been WIN METHOD for the Yankees. There is a section in one of WIN METHODS blogs that states a player can be WIN METHOD for one team and not for another. That is the importance of the interview. You mentioned the Yankees are relying more and more on statistical analysis. Probably correct. When George Steinbrenner was in charge, he would try to obtain almost any player WIN METHOD suggested. My point being Tulo helped the Rockies to the playoffs twice and that is WIN METHOD, adding in his solid BA I would think he would at least be interviewed. Basic stats are fine, the man made stats are garbage. You said all teams are using stats more and more, but most of those teams are losing more than half their games, and I would think those stats are proving nothing except they are worthless. My final point, only one team has been using the WIN METHOD and that team since they started to use it has had more success than any other team in baseball. And that same team that is using the WIN METHOD, did not have nearly the same success before its implementation, even though owned by the same man. We do not turn a blind eye to stats, we just don't use the convoluted ones. We prefer the basics and we win. You are welcome here anytime. The original Steve.
I enjoyed the discussion with Steven F. At least he is not a brain dead stat fanatic. Steven F. remember when people apply for a job, their stats form schools, etc only get them so far in the great companies. The interview is what gets them hired.
We have the team to win in house. Don't pay for someone else's castoff. or a high end FA we don't need.
I hope price gets over 200 million we some other team. Throw in Grienke also. We have Louie Louie.
Converted stat fraud here. Only wins matter, I'm converted.
Sit tight Brian. don't pay any attention to the stat frauds.
No baseball is boring.
Merry Christmas everyone and a Very Healthy and Happy New Year. Headed to Israel with wife for six weeks.
Cashman: JUST SAY NO.
Each day brings us closer to baseball. Think positive.
The WIN METHOD rules all of baseball.
The Yankee thread at the baseball forum I post on has gone political and negative. The worst is most posters there are imbeciles.
Checked it out Steve. Unbelievable.
Chris Young ex Yankees signed with the bosux today.
Stay cool Cashman.
Teams are going crazy. Throwing mass millions for players. Stay the course Cashman, we have the goods and they don't cost millions.
Price got 210 mil for 7 years. No one, no one, is worth those dollars. We got our albatross in afraud.
Why does it seem that the general consensus here is that the Yankees shouldn't spend money on any players? One of the Yankees strengths is being a big market team - if it isn't spending money on players we're not utilizing that advantage. You don't get brownie points for winning with a smaller payroll. If a move improves our team, I don't particularly care about how much the Yankees spent.
Lest we forget, our last world series came after we signed CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeria and others to major deals.
Keep the kids, keep the kids. Let the other teams spend and lose.
Steven F....It is fine to spend if you are getting a WIN METHOD player that WIN METHOD has given the OK to. Spending because someone else thinks you should or they think some player is right for the team is fool hardy. What a player produces for a team does not usually transcend to the next team they go to. Chemistry is oh so important. Players who play for themselves can kill a team. I think, as do many others here, feel the Yankee minor league system is loaded with solid MLB players. And they won't cost 20-30 million per year. Watch for the Yankees to surprise many people next season.
Here is a copy of a post refuting the negativity of another poster on a baseball forum..............""""""""""I disagree completely. Any team that makes the playoffs IS 'championship caliber'. That was last year. This year the team has already improved. The starting rotation has improved just by the addition of Louie Louie. Add in the more than likely improved season for Pineda and Nova who both came off major surgeries. The bullpen is fine and likely may be the best in baseball. We have upgraded at second base and catcher. We have several up and coming minor league prospects at several positions. Our one roadblock is DH where we have a player that cheated throughout his career, can't run, and can't play the field. The chucking of arod would immediately open a spot for Bird, another of our bloomers. You want a change, chuck the black hole arod. arod production will certainly be surpassed by Bird for the season, and Bird can and play the field spelling Tex at first base.""""""""
Steven F.....But we also had Jeter, the best player in the game and pure WIN METHOD. Signing a free agent is not a problem if they help your team. CC was a major contributor as was Tex. The problem was CC's contract was for to long.
Steve
Despite what I may feel about the guy on a personal level, I think the hate that goes to Arod on the forum is a little extreme. The guy has helped lead his team to the playoffs 12 times in his career. He also helped the Yankees win a World Series.
I saw in past posts that people guaranteed his absence in 2009 would benefit that team and result in a championship. We were 13-15 when he missed time that season and went 90-44 after his return, again ultimately winning the championship.
I don't want to give him too much praise or anything. I just think calling him a black hole and the only road black to a world series is way too extreme, just as it was back in 2009.
Steven F....very fair and accurate points. However afraud was a liar and cheater over his entire career. Those three years in Texas he crippled the team. for the three years before afraud got there and for the three years after he left Texas played significantly better baseball. Those years in Texas afraud was juiced to the gills and amassed massive individual stats. He wanted out and got an exorbitant contract from the bosux and than the Yankees. The Yankees were fools and WIN METHOD knew it and tried to stop Steinbrenner from signing afraud. There is no way to prove anything now, but I believe if the Yankees signed someone/or two other than afraud for 30M they would have made the playoffs every year and won a few more World Series.
Steven F, Just because a player puts up amazing individual stats, if he is a dirt bag, he may not be good for your team.
Steve
Yeah all fair points, and it was certainly a bad contract they gave him no question. The only plus is that I think it has made them more wary of giving out those type of deals going forward.
Augie
I know, but I didn't say anything about his stats. I'm just pointing out that it's a little unfair to act like he's never done anything for this franchise. He was a huge part, arguable the biggest part, of a very memorable World Series run. I just feel like the general attitude here is to put all the blame for any of the Yankees failures while giving him 0 credit for any of their successes, which in my opinion isn't very fair.
Furthermore,
I think the biggest problem this franchise has had in recent history is in it's inability to develop young players, especially position players, in recent years. Cano and Gardner have been good ones, but I can't really think of too many other in the past 10 years or so (I'm sure I'm missing some, please feel free to point out). I don't know that Arod or his contract had anything to do with that.
Luckily it looks like we have a lot of good talent on the horizon, should be exciting to seem them come up over the next few years.
Arizona Diamondbacks pay through the now for Grienke. What a stupid waste of money.
Good job Cashman, stay away from these money burners.
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