Friday, April 10, 2009

MISLEADING STATISTICS

Hey there WIN METHOD fans. I would like to illustrate to you, with an example of just how misleading stats can be and take you down a road only fools travel. The YANKEES opened the season with a three game series in Baltimore. The YANKEES scored more runs, got more hits, played error less defense while the O's committed two errors. Nice stats for the YANKEES, only one problem, the O's won two of the three games. How can that be, you may ask. Why? Because stats only document what happened. Statistics do not determine who wins, only what happened. Only winning determines who is best, because being the best is determined by WHEN you produce, not by how many or much you produce. The Orioles produced to a lesser degree, but produced WHEN it mattered. That is why they won two of the three games, The Orioles were the best team over those three games. Winning determines the best. No stats, no fool talking head on any of the sports shows, or newspapers, and not by any fools on baseball talk forums. That is why the WIN METHOD player evaluation system is undeniably the best way to judge a player over his career, by comparing players to each other in similar eras. At the end of a 162 game baseball season, the players who help lead their team to the playoffs are the best players in the game. The players who do this the most and then also help lead their team through the playoffs and to the World Series are the best players in their era. Put this in your back pocket and always remember when you hear people talking stats and comparing players, they know not of what they speak. Be the wise WIN METHOD fan, set them straight, then walk away laughing as they try to explain what fools they are, when they say their players who consistently fail to help their team achieve, are their best players. HAPPY EASTER

65 comments:

Erica Nuyens said...

Magnificent WIN METHOD. You are my hero.

Tony J said...

Welcome back WIN METHOD. Will you be at the new Stadium opener? God stuff as usual. Those misleading stats happen more times than I can count, during a season. You're right, stats are fools gold.

Andrew J. said...

no wonder the stat guys run and hide from this blog and hate the WIN METHOD. no one likes to be made a fool, and the stat users are surely proven to be fools by this blog.

WIN METHOD said...

Hey Tony J. I will be at the new Stadium opener. Have not missed an opener in NY for almost 50 years. Keep spreading the WIN METHOD word. People are starting to learn that the stat frauds know very little to nothing.

Long Run said...

Two words, folks: small sample.

Of course it can happen this way in one series. But it's a 162-game season. Over the long run, the ability to score runs at a higher rate and allow runs at a lower rate will tend to result in more wins.

Ben Kleinhorst said...

I love this blog. Still reading. Hope there is many more entrees to come with the season underway.

Erica Johnston said...

Happy Easter guys and gals. Hope the ball starts to really roll in KC.

johnsondc said...

Long Run, you just don't get it. you stat frauds always have an excuse, small sample, anomaly, the other guys fault, etc. etc. it's all BS. That's where the WIN METHOD buries you and your arguments. The WIN METHOD makes no excuses and needs none. The best always win, no matter what the stats may be, be it for a game, a series, a week, a month, or a season.

Corey said...

for johnsondc...of course yu are right in cutting off Long Run at the knees. The stat guys are so full of themselves and their corrupt, conniving formulas of deception and contrivance. Look at the Wall street, Bernie Madoff, and the banks. so many thieves and corruptions, all done with stats. That is why the WIN METHOD is so great, just as you said. Never an alibi, an excuse, or blaming someone else.

Tony J said...

The win is all that counts. What the stat geeks can't understand or apparently don't give a damn about is a 10-0 win has the exact same value as a 1-0 win. That alone identifies the fact that stat are meaningless.

Frank R said...

What do the stat lovers have against winning. they rather die loving and adoring a loser than accept or acknowledge a winner.

George H said...

Losers always look for excuses. that is what the stat guys do when their stats fail all the time. Winners ride the WIN METHOD.

Long Run said...

johnsondc, please take a look at baseball history. It's possible to get into the playoffs over the long run (i.e., a full season) scoring less than you give up. But, it's very rare and hard to do. I saw some discussion of this on one of the earlier threads here, so I won't copy it.

I'm enjoying life above ground, and my knees are working fine, Corey.

WIN METHOD said...

Long Run..you really don't get it. The WIN METHOD doesn't care how many runs you score or give up. The purpose of baseball is to win games, not to see how many runs you can score.
Tony J. previously stated, a win by 1-0 has the same value as a win by 10-0. There are no bonus points in baseball, just wins and losses. That is why wins are the only thing important to the WIN METHOD and its followers, and the greatest baseball players. But you can always use your stats in your fantasy games. Corey was right, but now the slicing has reached the waist.

Long Run said...

Chop away with your butter knives, boys. It's intuitively obvious that a 1-0 and 10-0 win wind up the same in the books. It's equally obvious (or should be) that the law of averages will gain strength over a full season.

Getting outscored in a World Series and winning -- it's happened several times. Getting to the Series that way...not likely at all.

WIN METHOD said...

Long Run...you keep babbling the same thing over and over. The facts are it makes no difference how many runs are scored in any game as long as you score one more run than the opposition in any game, the more times you score at least that one more run, the more time the team wins. At the end of a season, teams make the playoffs by winning their division or having the most wins as a second place time. In no way shape or form is their any suggestion that a team must score a certain amount of runs. You can reach the playoffs with a 50 differential or a 500 hundred differential. REPEAT, REPEAT, The only thing that gets you into the playoffs is the WINS. You are welcome to post here anytime, but if you are unable to grasp the concept of winning being the single most important factor in baseball, then you will be better off in the baseball forums.

Gabe Hooks said...

Long Run..I think your problem comes from being brainwashed by stat frauds. Try to grasp the concept of WHEN a player produces over how much he produces. Translate that concept to why certain teams win the most games and advance to the playoffs, and who will readily be able to see who the best players are, No blaming the other guys, no anomalies, no excuses. That is why the WIN METHOD rules.

Long Run said...

Fellows -- my viewpoint and yours are not mutually exclusive. Let's take a look at last year's Angels, for example. They scored 765 and allowed 697, which would suggest (by one well-regarded method) a record of 88-74. Yet they were 100-62, thanks in part to a strong record in one-run games (31-21).

But now let's look at last year's Giants, who tied the Angels for the majors' best record in one-run games with the same 31-21. They did well at the right times too...yet they were 72-90.

Why did they not get as many wins as the Angels? They were outscored, on average, over the full season (640 for, 759 against). But if your method has an alternative explanation as to where wins come from -- not just recognizing them after the fact -- I'm all ears.

WIN METHOD said...

You are using misleading stats to prove misleading stats. Stats are only a documentation of what happened and do not predict the future. In your scenarios there was only one thing that mattered in the final analysis, who won the games. The WIN METHOD is not used to predict the future. It does record the psat, just as stats do, but the WIN METHOD recognizes the best players in the game for the reason the game is played, for the success of the team, not the individual player. That is why the WIN METHOD buries individual stats, which only recognizes what an individual accomplishes for himself. When the stat individual buries his team in last place, the stat frauds try to come up with every conceivable excuse. The WIN METHOD on the other hand never ever has to make an excuse. It recognizes the best players no matter what their individual stats may be. Great, good, fair, or poor. It is their achievement in helping their team win which is always recognized by the WIN METHOD.

Harold Jenkins said...

WIN METHOD...from your mouth comes incite and common sense.

Long Rin../from your mouth comes a backward way of looking at players. Individual stats do not necessarily mean team success, and team success is the object of the game. Unless you are playing fantasy games based on individual players.

Jamile Jackson said...

If anyone cannot learn the value of team success over individual success from this blog, they need to go back to school.

Long Run said...

Actually, the numbers I provided are as team-oriented as they get. There was no individual discussion at all.

There is clearly validity to the "when they produce" argument. History shows there is also a strong correlation, over a full season, between *team* runs scored/allowed and winning. It's a two-way street.

Until the next new WM post, gentlemen and ladies.

johnsondc said...

Long Run..There is no debate to the logic that if you score many runs, you may win more. and if you give up less runs, you may win more. But in the end, in regards to the WIN METHOD, it doesn't make an iota of difference how much, how many, or how little. The only thing that really matters, counts, and determines the winner, is the WIN.

Karl L said...

It looked like Long Run was seeing some light in his last post. He needs to go all the way and become WIN METHOD.

Ken V said...

Happy Easter everyone. Let the Yankees roll.

Lou L said...

Sabathia looks like a different man from a few days ago.

Martin Holmes said...

Nice win, and the win is all that matters.

Nick Howard said...

Yes, Happy Easter to all. This is the site where winning is not only accepted, but held in the highest regard.

Paul Dixon said...

Lets see what we get from Joba today. So far staff seems fantastic.

RLA said...

What a rotten loss. Well, it's a long season. 2 of 3 at Tampa would be fine.

Sharon/NC said...

Taking yesterdays game as a whole. Joba looked real good. No Tes or Po in the lineup. Facing KCs ace. Pen blew game with 2 out in the 8th. Possibly, did Joe G. over manage the pen?

TJ said...

I think you hit the nail on the head Sharon. I was thinking the same thing. In the long run, it may help the bullpen, If you don't bear down in the one run games, you can let them slip away.

Ollie Wilson said...

This is a fantastic blog. love the info and perspective.

Vincent Gandozzi said...

If Wang gets back on track tonight, the starting five will look like the best in baseball.

WIN METHOD said...

Last nights game is just one loss via the WIN METHOD, but it is fodder for the stat frauds. All those runs, poor Wangs ERA. how long will it take to get back down to a semi respectable stat according to the stat users. In two more games he could be 2-2. One game at a time, playing for wins. that is all it takes.

Carlos Ruiz said...

@Long Run: Don't feed the trolls. They don't know the difference between statistics and data. Your points, though well-though, fall on apathetic minds here.

It's all word-games and junk-science. I'd imagine they're all Global Warming Evangelists as well!

Walter O said...

Carlos..the WIN METHOD is based on wins and winning. There is no deviations, distortions, or misleading. We leave that soley to you stat frauds who have been proven wrong time after time. Yes, stats are junk science, we here all accept that and recognize just how useless they can be.

Jamile Jackson said...

Carlos, I can't believe you are not bright enough, that you insult winning, while trusting in what is the most easily manipulable, corrupt, and disingenuous fields in the world, stats. Put your hand back in the sand.

Andy P said...

Lets do a little stat fraud problem. How much dirt would you have to throw on Carlos to bury him?
Using stats, it could be anything a stat fraud would like it to be.

Andrew J. said...

Stat frauds, get over yourselves. Wins are the single most important thing in baseball, whether you frauds wish to admit it or not.

Ben Kleinhorst said...

Great game by AJ. Perfect bounce back win. 2 0f 3 from the Rays would be super.

Erica Nuyens said...

Any day, any one of our five starters can be the ace. Just wait until everything clicks at once, and we go on a double digit win streak.

bigbadwolf said...

What a game. Pettitte did a great job. Jeter big key offensively and defensively in helping team win. Bruney and Mo super in 8th and 9th. Great WIN METHOD win.

Don Webb said...

Jeter proves again why WIN METHOD recognizes him as the best player in baseball over the past 15 years.

frank said...

lets get a WIN in our home opener. We have one good month to go before the drama queen comes back.

Gordon said...

3 of 4 would be real nice for the weekend, wins and more wins is all that counts.

Steve said...

I think I figured out why the stat frauds hate Derek Jeter. He does not meet their foolish ignorant individual statistical profile of their great player. But Jeter does fit almost all intelligent baseball fans idea of being great. He leads his team to wins, playoffs, pennants and World Series. The best player in the game.

Vincent Gandozzi said...

Echoing others here, a loss by many runs is equal to a loss by 1 ron. rather lose by many. It gives the misleading individual stat frauds something to do.

Robert Lynch said...

now we will have to really work to take 3 of 4.

Billy Hoffman said...

A WIN is like putting a stake through the heart of a stat fraud.

johnsondc said...

Derek and Mo, what you get, a WIN METHOD win. One run wins are like gold.

Gordon said...

Wang gets another chance tomorrow. If he gets on board, things could really start rolling.

Sharon/NC said...

Oh my, the Yankees after 11 games have a winning record and have given up more runs than they have scored. Poor stat frauds, no wait, it's to small a sample. No wait, it's an anomaly. No wait, it's an outlier.

In reality and fact, stats are meaningless.

Long Run said...

Hmmm, let's see: 6-5 record, 59 scored, 62 allowed. Well within normal probabilities, even for (yes) a small sample. But if this were to hold up over 162 games, then it would be a rarity. That's my point.

The one-run wins are impressive, but with the weapons the Yankees have, they'll surely post their share of blowouts too.

Long Run said...

PS: Let me make that "could" be a rarity -- if the Yankees wind up well over .500 yet are significantly outscored.

If they end up a little over .500 (doubtful!) and are slightly outscored, that would not be so unusual.

Erica Nuyens said...

Long Run..so in essence you are a WIN METHOD fan. You say the runs scored don't make much of a difference, and can vary to almost any degree. We here know that, and we do not care how many runs are scored or given up. We are only concerned and care about the WIN.

Steve said...

Oh my heavens, that was one heck of a horrid inning.

Long Run said...

I won't go quite that far, Erica. I've said I see some validity to the "when they are scored" point. However, I don't agree with this interpretation of yours:

"You say the runs scored don't make much of a difference, and can vary to almost any degree."

I believe team runs scored (and prevented) make a definite difference, which becomes more visible over a full season. There is a strong correlation between this margin and winning. It is rare to find a playoff team with a negative runs scored differential.

Steve said...

Long Run..it's so much as a negative at seasons end. But more to the point that a team can make the playoffs with a +50, a +150, or a +300. It doesn't make any difference how many you score or how many you give up. It is only the amount of wins the team earns, that gets them into the playoffs.

johnsondc said...

At least we didn't lose 5-4 and have to think how we could've won.

Walter O said...

new day and a new game. at least the meaningless runs don't carry over and don't mean anything.

TJ said...

A WIN would be very nice.

johnsondc said...

Another WIN METHOD win.

What's the Diff? said...

If you say it doesn't really matter how many runs you win or lose by, then why is a one-run win seemingly more worthy of approval as a "WIN METHOD" win? Aren't they all?

Lisa Woodruf said...

A great great blog. Love it.