Saturday, March 7, 2009

CATCH A BREAK?

Hey WIN METHOD fans. I said I wouldn't blog until I got back from Tampa, but I couldn't let this go. It appears the YANKEES have the leverage on Arod, for him to have the surgery for his torn labrum very soon. If we catch a break and he misses the season, it would be very likely the YANKEES will get their 27th World Series title. See you soon, and thanks for all the great comments. I will cover your questions when I get back.

76 comments:

Gene P said...

do you really think Arod hurts a team that much, what about his stats?

Steve said...

Now we will see the Yankees roll.

johnsondc said...

for Gene: When Arod left Seattle, they immediately won more games on average for the next three years. Arod went to Texas, Texas immediately lost more games during ARods three years than they did without him the previous three years before Arod. The Arod to the Yankees, and Texas immediately wins more game on average as soon as Arod leaves. The Yankees with Arod have won less games then the three years before Arod. While with Arod the Yankees have continuously lost more games each year. Individual stats little it is WHEN you produce that counts.

Erica Johnston said...

I think the lineup is strong enough that Afraud will be no loss.

Curtis Fitzgerald said...

I keep checking back and each time there is more great information. Best darn baseball site I've come across.

Teena, Bronx said...

WIN METHOD = You play for the name on the front of your jersey, not for the name on your back.

bigbadwolf said...

Teena....your post was beautiful. I will use it.

Sharon/NC said...

I'm a believer.

Frank R said...

AP just reported...Arod to have surgery Monday. WIN METHOD, you know the news before it happens. I love telling my friends that you post. They think I am a genius. Thank you, thank you, thank you.

Tony J said...

Unbelievable blog. You must have some great sources. Plus winning is best. that was a great line from Teena.

johnsondc said...

Unfortunately it is only going to be artho surgery, not the knife surgery. He will be back sooner and may only miss alittle more than a month. Crapola.

TJ said...

We need Afraud out for the season.

Willie J said...

Good looking blog.

Frank R said...

Arod goes under the beam today. The way I understand it, the artho is only a stop gap measure preventing the bones from rubbing, which causes the pain. We'll see.

Steve said...

Alex s anticipated return so soon could throw a wrench in the teams flow and chemistry. What a downer.

Joe Blakowski said...

I wonder how the Yankees ever had so much success without Arod. Since his joining the team, they have lost more games each and every year.

Kenny Bostic said...

Actually, the Yanks had the exact same record in 2004 (A-Rod's first year) as they did in 2003. Then there was an uptick of two games in 2006 from 2005. The overall W-L trend is down, however.

But is it right to lay all this on A-Rod? I'm not wild about the guy at all, but I thought this blog was about the idea of the team game. There are plenty of other factors to look at.

Gordon said...

Fantastic insight people, and I totally agree with Teenas....'You play for the name on the front of your jersey, not for the name on your back."

Corey said...

This type of info has been long overdo. Good information, and it beats the wire services.

bigbadwolf said...

For Kenny B....you must have read the forum site..All your facts are correct, also throw in 07 & 08 and the losses grow even greater. Arod endures the greatest blame because he is not a WIN METHOD player. This was discovered in two separate interviews with WIN METHOD himself. Arod plays for himself, not the team. If he was a seldom used role player, there would be far less negatives for the team. Being an every day position player, the effect becomes near catastrophic. Can the team win with him. Yes, but it would put a far greater burden on the rest of the team.

Sandho Icavor said...

This is quickly becoming my favorite blog. Fast info and it's right.

Martin Holmes said...

Maybe the stat frauds are part of the 'political correct' crowd. that would be the only reason the winners would not be the best.

Steve said...

for bigbadwolf:... I checked out that baseball forum. Wow, what a joke some of those guys are, They commit suicide by drowning, in meaningless stats. I loved your post using stats illustrating when stats are taken to their final outcome, they prove themselves meaningless. Then the next stat frauds tries to use other stats to try to show you wrong.

highpockets said...

For Steve,
"I loved your post using stats illustrating when stats are taken to their final outcome, they prove themselves meaningless. Then the next stat frauds [sic] tries to use other stats to try to show you wrong."
I guess that would be me. BBW's post was off the mark, because no sane statistician would adopt its reasoning. He hypothesized a team going 100-62 by winning 100 1-run games and losing 62 two-run games. But I showed that the mathematics of statistics and probability demonstrate clearly that it's an absurdity. So it makes no sense to accuse statisticians of that kind of mistaken thinking.

Steve, I frankly don't think you understood my post. So the tag "stats fraud" is a little harsh coming from you.

Steve said...

for highpockets:...I called the Mike Franseca show the other day and confronted him in regards to winning over stats. He got befuddled and confused. after @ a seven minute conversation, he hung up on me, but could never defeat my argument. I think bigbadwolf used an extreme scenario to illustrate how when stats are used to an end, they ultimately become meaningless. A different version of the same scenario..the team wins 33 games by 3 runs, 33 games by 4 runs, and 34 games by 5 runs. That is -401 runs and 100 wins. They lose 20 games by 6 runs, 20 games by 7 runs, and 22 games by 8 runs/ That is -436 runs and 62 loses for a -35 runs for the season and go to the playoffs. All we WIN METHOD people are saying is....it is the WINS that determine who is best, that the stats of the runs scored or given up. The absurdity is the stats themselves, and how they can mislead. There for becoming meaningless. On the other hand, the win/loss record of the teams always defines the winner and who moves on until they lose. The wins never ever mislead, and are never absurd.

highpockets said...

For Steve,
The point of your example escapes me. The probability of a team's margin in wins always being less than its margin in losses over 162 games is so small that my computer doesn't hold enough zeros to express it.

"On the other hand, the win/loss record of the teams always defines the winner and who moves on until they lose."

Your observation reinforces what I said before. Who's disagreeing? I do not think you understand the positions you're arguing against. Why would anyone bother to argue against a tautology? "The team that wins is the team that wins." We don't need a WIN METHOD to tell us this.

H Lopez said...

Great blog. I have always leaned to the best players being the winners. that is what I was taught by my father.

bigbadwolf said...

for highpockets..We need to put all this into context. In the forum, comments come from many from many different directions. Ir was mentioned that how could a team lose 100+ rbis and 30+ HRs and not be hurt. The runs scored was used to emphasize the point, it makes no difference how many runs the team scores, as long as it wins. which is the only object of the game. Not how much any individual collects. The point being it is far and away more important WHEN a player produces than how much he produces, as long as it helps the team win. It was mentioned that a grand slam in the eight inning of a game you are winning 8-0 is meaningless in deciding the game, but it does look good on the individuals stats.
Adding that a sac fly in the eight inning to win a 1 run game can be of the up most value and have far less impact on the individuals stats. The point being, WIN METHOD players make the team the best it can be, putting their individual stats in a much less important role, while holding the results for the team in the highest regard. Great individual accomplishment does not necessarily make for great results for the team. WIN METHOD himself has declared Arod a non WIN METHOD player with face to face conversations. His loss has never hurt any team, his loss has made the team he left better. The team he then went to, then went downhill. I think it was you who them mentioned that these teams gave up and or scored less opr more runs, and that made the difference. Yes those events happened, but they happened when Arod was not around. Coincidence, not for over a decade and three different teams. Arod will not be missed, and hopefully he will miss the season.

TJ said...

The way I see it is, in the present era, the more playoffs, pennants, and world series you get to and win, that will determine the best players. Players are measured by their individual role on the team and in the end it make no difference what any individual attains for himself, but what he attains for the team in his role. Since the object of the game is for the team to win, it seems to me, judging players on how many times they each help their team achieve the highest levels is the only way to evaluate them. I would rather have andwin with team achievers than lose with individual achievers.

Ed Ferguson said...

directed to check this blog out. i like what i see.

johnsondc said...

for TJ;... I agree. Stats are only good for keeping score and then used in fantasy games. Winning must be used to determine the best players.

Curtis Fitzgerald said...

Hey Steve..you embarased Francesca om the radio, and destroyed 'highpockets' here. Here's hoping the Yankee can work around Afraud.

Jim Alderson said...

Everything seems to be coming along well in spring training. The Yanks should get off to a great start without Afrud.

Erica Nuyens said...

Thinking about this Bernie Madoff thing. He's a stat fraud cheating 1000's of people out of millions of dollars using stats. that is what stat frauds do in baseball. They try to sell you the promise that their individual stat leader you cripples his team is better than his counterpart who just won the World Series. 'highpockets' is a stat fraud.

Joe Blakowski said...

Wow! great analogy Erica,

bigbadwolf said...

Yes,that was cute, Erica.

Monte J said...

Why would anyone try to use stats to define who is best. There is only the winner and the ones who get close to being the winner. Stats are for the fools.

Karl L said...

great perspective. fun reading, i like the bernie madoff-stat fraud comparison.

Rich Metzger said...

Say Curtis, I'm having a hard time seeing where Steve "destroyed" highpockets. He came up with another extremely unrealistic example of a team's season.

I like to think of it this way. I agree with the idea that clutch hitting -- *when* a run is driven in -- is important. How can you not? But I hope all of us here have watched enough baseball to know that not so many games in a season are won with a key sac fly. Also, if you went over box scores, how many of A-Rod's homers and RBIs are "empty calories" compiled when the team was already up big? I don't think he'd be much different from, say, Albert Pujols there.

If you're willing, I think some of you WIN METHOD folks should take a look at something called Pythagorean win percentage. It simply looks at a team's actual won-lost percentage and compares it to what a formula (not a complex one) suggests the team's record *should* have been based on actual runs scored and allowed.

There are always differences. If a team wins more than the formula suggests, it can imply a good manager, good clutch performance, or other intangibles that this blog values highly. The 1998 Yankees, for example, won 114 vs. an "expected" 111. If a team loses more than the formula suggests, you've got an underachieving team.

I like this because wins come from runs for and against. Looking at a whole real season evens out the blowouts and the close ones. Exhibit A: the 2004 Yankees -- with A-Rod -- scored 897 and allowed 808. Their "expected" W-L was 89-73, but they went 101-61. The gap since then have not been so big, but in only one year (2007) did they win fewer than "expected." I think it's fair to credit the team as a whole, including A-Rod.

Sharon/NC said...

I can't wait to see what WIN METHOD blogs next. Great stuff.

Frank R said...

When i want BS and opinion, I go to the forums. When I want fact and common sense, I come to this blog.

bigbadwolf said...

For Rich..all you are doing is trying to create a man made convoluted statistical formula. Where do you think 'stat fraud' comes from. Steve and I in our similar scenarios where only trying to show everyone that in the end game, it is unimportant how many runs a team scores or gives up. the only important thing is the WIN. Something stat frauds care little about compared to their convoluted formulas.

johnsondc said...

I can't speak for everyone here, but I've been around the block several times with stat people. I have come across nothing finer nor with more common sense than the WIN METHOD.

TJ said...

I've been through the stat route too. I don't think anyone hasn't at one time. Stats don't beat the WIN METHOD.

Rich Metzger said...

Guys -- I see something to what you say, especially over the short run like a playoff series. The 1960 World Series is a perfect example.

But over the long haul, it's just almost never going to happen that you score fewer than you allow and be a winning team. It doesn't stand to reason.

One of you should look at all A-Rod's Yankee box scores and count up his key RBIs vs. his empty calories. You might be surprised. It's too simplistic to say he's the "cooler" everywhere he goes. What else happened with his teams? A lot.

Curtis Fitzgerald said...

For Rich, Everyone who is a WIN METHOD player on the team gets credit for the teams success or failure. The non WIN METHOD player however will always take the most heat for failure and get less credit for the teams success. Remember Afraud went to a Texas team that had on average a winning record for the 3 years before Afraud. Had a dismal pathetic losing record for Afauds 3 years with them, and he won a MVP for leading them to last place. When Afraud left Texas they immediately had a winning record on average for the next 3 years. The Yankees have consistently went downhill with Afraud. I'll stick with the WIN METHOD.

bigbadwolf said...

Rich... Our point is not that a team will score fewer runs over the season, but that they do not need to score a very large amount of runs. One team can win a division with +200 runs, another +125 runs, and a another +75 runs. It does not matter, they all go to the playoffs, and most importantly, the runs scored doesn't signify who is the best, it only signifies who finished the season with the biggest run differential. In essence, meaningless. In the end, only winning will define the best.
As for Afraud, no question he is talented beyond many a player. One difference, he is a fraud. He does not help, nor has he helped any team he has played for. They get better without him and get worse with him.

Andy P said...

Guys, what is the debate about. You win, you are the best. No matter waht the stat guys want to tell you.

Teena, Bronx said...

Here's my thought on the pitching staff. At year end #1 Burnett. #2 Wang. #3 Sabathia.

Rich Metzger said...

Bigbadwolf -- sure, you put it like that, you have three playoff quality teams and anything can happen. What I was trying to get at is that Steve's example, with a -35 differential, would almost certainly never be a winning team in real life. If things broke right, maybe a little over .500 and scraping into the playoffs.

bigbadwolf said...

Rich.. You are missing the big picture. We at the WIN METHOD do not care how many runs the winner scores or allows. We only care about the win. The games are played to win, not to see how many runs you score. A win by 1 run has the exact same value as a win by 10 runs. Likewise for a loss. Point being, the wins are all that matters to the WIN METHOD. Nothing else matters.

Steve said...

For Rich... It is not always what a player does in certain situations. Good players will always fail the majority of the time. The difference being the greatest players succeed the most and thus help their team to the most success. The biggest difference with WIN METHOD players is that they are not afraid tobe in big spots and succeed mor often in big spots than non WIN METHOD players, if only for the fact they are able to get their team to the big spot more often.

johnsondc said...

Rich...Step into the light. Become WIN METHOD. You'll enjoy the games more knowing the winner is best.

Rich Metzger said...

Thanks guys, but I like looking beyond just wins. I'm interested to know why a team like the 2007 Diamondbacks (712 scored, 732 allowed) did actually go 90-72 and make the NLCS when their differential suggested they'd be a sub-.500 team. This kind of thing fits what you talk about, but teams are swimming against a strong tide over a 162-game season.

Steve said...

For Rich..You argue stats, but illustrate the WIN METHOD point. Our argument is not against scoring runs, but to win and be the best over the season, through the playoffs, and into the World Series,it is not a matter of how many runs you score, but far mor important When you score them. The main thing to remember is the value of a win does not vary by how many runs you score or the difference in how many you score minus how many you give up. There in lies the fallacy of stats. There has been nor ever will be a fallacy in wins. That is why stat frauds hate the WIN METHOD.

Curtis Fitzgerald said...

Rich...When we watch a game and advance through the season, we do not have to worry about individual stats and waste our time. all we want is the win each day, no matter how it is accomplished. That is the goal, for the team to win, not an individual. Plus stats lie. Wins never lie.

Steve said...

hey bigbadwolf..did you see what one jerk posted about Jeter on the forum you post at? he posted the Yankees win more games with Jeter out of the lineup than when he is in. The yoyo forgot to mention all the playoffs, 6 pennants, and 4 World Series Jeter helped the team win. The poster defines just what stat frauds are.

Rich Metzger said...

I'm coming to this debate with an open mind, Steve. I recognize that it's possible to make the playoffs and score less than you allow. But do you recognize how hard it is? Only five other teams besides the '07 D'Backs have done it. Only one, the '87 Twins, became champions.

http://www.rootzoo.com/articles/view/MLB-Baseball/General/The-6-Teams-that-had-Negative-Run-Differential-during-the-Regular-Season-MLB_1563

Steve said...

Rich...The point is that the WIN METHOD does not care if a team scores less runs than they allow, nor does it care how many more runs it scores than they allow. All of that is meaningless. What we care about is wins and nothing but wins. We do not care if one individual has 50HRS and 150RBIs. If the team does not win, all the one individual stats are meaningless. It is the simple things that win games. And the best teams do many of the simple things, albeit in an of a variety of ways.

Curtis Fitzgerald said...

You are right on Steve.

Len H said...

Nice blog, great info and insight.

Curtis Fitzgerald said...

For Steve... You are now 3 for 3. You struck out Francesca, highpockets, and Rich. Great job stopping stat fraud.

Copernicus said...

The WIN METHOD is a classic circular argument. A circular argument fails as a proof because it will only be judged to be sound by those who already accept its conclusion.

johnsondc said...

Fro copernicus... We are guilty as charged. We WIN METHOD supporters all accept winning as determining who the best players are. We let the fools who accept losing and individual stats to wallow in their ignorance.

Curtis Fitzgerald said...

Down goes another stat fraud. Down goes another stat fraud.

Tim Wilson said...

I too disagree with Copernicus. The logic on display here actually fits the Argument of Personal Incredulity.

"I can't imagine how the WIN METHOD could possibly be wrong.
Therefore, I use the WIN METHOD."

Or, to turn it inside out, "I can't imagine how the stat frauds could possibly be right. Therefore, they are wrong."

It's ironic, johnsondc -- this is a variant of another logical fallacy, the Argument from Ignorance.

What we also have here is communal reinforcement and the Appeal to Belief.

Fascinating, really.

bigbadwolf said...

Hey Tim....Your post has the stench of a disingenuous stat fraud, who like the stat frauds talks in riddles of despair. Sorry that winning determining the best and people believing that scares you.

Teena, Bronx said...

This blog is starting to excite me. Go WIN METHOD.

Dennis W. said...

One helluva site. Entertaining to say the least.

Walter O said...

Dennis W told me to come here. Will pass along the site. Nice stuff.

Steve said...

It looks like all the stat frauds have run to the hills, to play and live in their fantasy world.

Dimitri said...

Cool dude.

bigbadwolf said...

I posted a couple of comments on the baseball forum I visit. I cannot believe the ignorance of the responses from the stat frauds there. I left them with..."Thank God there are professionals on the field who make the smart decisions."
And thank God that 99% of the posters here know baseball and winning.

Erica Nuyens said...

I need more blog, and WIN METHOD.

Gabe Hooks said...

I like reading stuff from someone who knows the game and what he is talking about. Just to many fools who don't know their ass from their elbow on the baseball forums.

johnsondc said...

Good news everyone, WIN METHOD will be back to blog any day now.